NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at IND
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 21 · IND 24
Win probability
IND 62.5%
MIA 37.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · 0.078
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.043
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · -0.006
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.126
Red-zone matchup
MIA · -0.147
QB intelligence
MIA · -0.134
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
Prediction range
MIA: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
IND: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
IND 7 · JAX 42
IND 10 · MIN 16
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
TEN 26 · IND 20
CIN 31 · MIA 24
IND 22 · PIT 34
MIA 10 · MIN 15
IND 30 · WAS 13
HOU 17 · IND 19
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST