NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at IND
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 20 · IND 26
Win probability
IND 71.6%
MIA 28.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · 0.174
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.010
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · -0.007
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.109
Red-zone matchup
IND · 0.185
QB intelligence
IND · 0.139
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
Prediction range
MIA: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
IND: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
IND 22 · PIT 34
MIA 10 · MIN 15
IND 30 · WAS 13
KC 24 · MIA 10
HOU 17 · IND 19
IND 30 · KC 33
MIA 13 · SF 35
BAL 41 · IND 23
MIA 13 · LV 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT