NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
MIN at GB
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIN 20 · GB 20
Win probability
GB 50.7%
MIN 49.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward MIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · -0.097
Pressure matchup
GB · 0.054
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.013
Third-down matchup
GB · 0.127
Red-zone matchup
GB · 0.612
QB intelligence
GB · 0.150
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
MIN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
GB: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIN 23 · NO 13
MIA 10 · MIN 15
GB 17 · TB 14
MIN 23 · TB 16
ATL 35 · GB 14
GB 20 · NYJ 17
MIN 9 · CHI 3
GB 22 · MIN 39
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT