NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence

NE at DET

Sunday, November 15 at 9:30 AM EST

Projected score

NE 23 · DET 25

Win probability

DET 53.7%

NE 46.3%

Tie 0.0%

Injury impact

No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.

Weather Prediction

No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.

Team strength snapshot

DET · Elo 1592

Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077

Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%

NE · Elo 1544

Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096

Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%

Matchup Advantage Matrix

Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DET; negative values lean toward NE.

Opponent-adjusted EPA

NE · -0.012

Pressure matchup

NE · -0.031

Explosive-play matchup

NE · -0.028

Third-down matchup

DET · 0.065

Red-zone matchup

DET · 0.521

QB intelligence

NE · -0.039

Injury availability

Even · 0.000

Quarterback comparison

DET · J.Goff

264 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.266 · CPOE 1.1

NE · D.Maye

251 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.209 · CPOE 7.3

Prediction range

NE: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36

DET: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37

Recent form

NE 24 · MIA 19

MIN 15 · DET 19

GB 17 · DET 20

NE 24 · CHI 30

NYJ 19 · NE 26

DET 45 · ARI 21

LV 17 · NE 45

DET 26 · CAR 32

NE 29 · BUF 26

NE 6 · JAX 35

Model context

BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST