NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
NE at DET
Sunday, November 15 at 9:30 AM EST
Projected score
NE 25 · DET 25
Win probability
DET 50.6%
NE 49.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DET; negative values lean toward NE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · -0.068
Pressure matchup
NE · -0.032
Explosive-play matchup
NE · -0.029
Third-down matchup
DET · 0.099
Red-zone matchup
DET · 0.769
QB intelligence
DET · 0.150
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
NE · D.Maye
163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7
Prediction range
NE: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
DET: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
LV 17 · NE 45
DET 26 · CAR 32
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 24 · DET 31
NE 6 · JAX 35
PIT 3 · NE 20
DET 31 · BUF 41
NO 30 · DET 31
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT