NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at CIN
Sunday, November 15 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
PIT 22 · CIN 25
Win probability
CIN 59.4%
PIT 40.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CIN; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · 0.023
Pressure matchup
PIT · -0.035
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · -0.013
Third-down matchup
CIN · 0.200
Red-zone matchup
CIN · 0.241
QB intelligence
CIN · 0.268
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
PIT: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
CIN: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
IND 22 · PIT 34
JAX 22 · CIN 17
PIT 24 · CLE 27
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CIN 20 · HOU 6
PIT 3 · NE 20
TB 27 · CIN 33
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT