NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
SEA at LV
Sunday, November 15 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
SEA 25 · LV 21
Win probability
LV 30.1%
SEA 69.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LV; negative values lean toward SEA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · -0.184
Pressure matchup
LV · 0.009
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · -0.025
Third-down matchup
LV · 0.117
Red-zone matchup
SEA · -0.152
QB intelligence
LV · 0.098
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
SEA: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
LV: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
LAC 23 · SEA 30
LV 35 · NO 27
SEA 31 · WAS 33
LV 26 · LAC 14
SEA 31 · ARI 7
MIA 13 · LV 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT