NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at DAL
Sunday, November 15 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
SF 27 · DAL 24
Win probability
DAL 30.8%
SF 69.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.169
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.004
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.031
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.008
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.094
QB intelligence
SF · -0.203
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
SF: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–40
DAL: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
SF 32 · SEA 29
TB 24 · DAL 16
DEN 14 · SF 24
DAL 34 · HOU 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
ARI 30 · SF 36
MIA 13 · SF 35
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT