NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
WAS at NYG
Thursday, November 12 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
WAS 22 · NYG 25
Win probability
NYG 54.7%
WAS 45.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward WAS.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
WAS · -0.010
Pressure matchup
WAS · -0.010
Explosive-play matchup
WAS · -0.011
Third-down matchup
NYG · 0.058
Red-zone matchup
WAS · -0.345
QB intelligence
NYG · 0.037
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
WAS: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
NYG: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
IND 30 · WAS 13
TEN 7 · NYG 12
SEA 31 · WAS 33
NYG 6 · LA 28
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT