NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at KC
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ARI 19 · KC 29
Win probability
KC 82.2%
ARI 17.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · 0.194
Pressure matchup
ARI · -0.025
Explosive-play matchup
KC · 0.041
Third-down matchup
ARI · -0.031
Red-zone matchup
ARI · -0.161
QB intelligence
KC · 0.211
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
Prediction range
ARI: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
KC: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
KC 30 · LV 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
ARI 30 · SF 36
KC 24 · MIA 10
IND 30 · KC 33
SEA 31 · ARI 7
DEN 10 · KC 31
ARI 26 · LAC 14
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT