NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at CAR
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
BAL 26 · CAR 24
Win probability
CAR 41.2%
BAL 58.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · -0.061
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.031
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.010
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.040
Red-zone matchup
CAR · 0.103
QB intelligence
BAL · -0.117
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
BAL: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
CAR: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
DET 26 · CAR 32
TEN 18 · BAL 24
BAL 34 · DAL 31
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
NO 24 · BAL 17
CHI 59 · CAR 37
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT