NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
CIN at WAS
Monday, November 23 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
CIN 26 · WAS 24
Win probability
WAS 40.1%
CIN 59.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward WAS; negative values lean toward CIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · -0.079
Pressure matchup
WAS · 0.027
Explosive-play matchup
WAS · 0.020
Third-down matchup
CIN · -0.155
Red-zone matchup
WAS · 0.382
QB intelligence
CIN · -0.246
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
CIN: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
WAS: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
NYG 27 · WAS 27
JAX 22 · CIN 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
SEA 31 · WAS 33
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CIN 20 · HOU 6
WAS 20 · DAL 37
TB 27 · CIN 33
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT