NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at HOU
Thursday, November 19 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
IND 21 · HOU 26
Win probability
HOU 70.0%
IND 30.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward HOU; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · 0.089
Pressure matchup
HOU · 0.028
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · 0.008
Third-down matchup
HOU · 0.032
Red-zone matchup
HOU · 0.109
QB intelligence
HOU · 0.382
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.119 · CPOE 2.3
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
Prediction range
IND: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
HOU: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
IND 7 · JAX 42
NYG 27 · HOU 21
IND 10 · MIN 16
TEN 26 · IND 20
HOU 34 · JAX 31
HOU 26 · TEN 3
IND 22 · PIT 34
DAL 34 · HOU 30
IND 30 · WAS 13
HOU 17 · IND 19
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST