NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at HOU
Thursday, November 19 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
IND 22 · HOU 26
Win probability
HOU 65.5%
IND 34.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward HOU; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · 0.025
Pressure matchup
IND · -0.023
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · 0.008
Third-down matchup
HOU · 0.030
Red-zone matchup
IND · -0.267
QB intelligence
HOU · 0.266
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
IND: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
HOU: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
HOU 26 · TEN 3
DAL 34 · HOU 30
IND 30 · WAS 13
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
IND 30 · KC 33
BUF 36 · HOU 31
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT