NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at NYG
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 24 · NYG 20
Win probability
NYG 26.4%
JAX 73.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.213
Pressure matchup
JAX · -0.015
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.017
Third-down matchup
NYG · 0.022
Red-zone matchup
NYG · 0.128
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.309
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
NYG: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
Recent form
NYG 27 · WAS 27
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
ARI 24 · NYG 36
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NE 6 · JAX 35
NYG 6 · LA 28
JAX 13 · DEN 20
CLE 10 · JAX 34
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT