NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at DEN
Sunday, November 22 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
LV 20 · DEN 24
Win probability
DEN 66.5%
LV 33.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · 0.104
Pressure matchup
DEN · 0.052
Explosive-play matchup
LV · -0.003
Third-down matchup
LV · -0.023
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.282
QB intelligence
LV · -0.246
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
Prediction range
LV: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
DEN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 26 · DEN 30
LV 35 · NO 27
JAX 13 · DEN 20
LV 26 · LAC 14
DEN 10 · KC 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT