NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at BUF
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 19 · BUF 30
Win probability
BUF 87.3%
MIA 12.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BUF; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · 0.273
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.017
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · 0.016
Third-down matchup
BUF · 0.043
Red-zone matchup
BUF · 0.263
QB intelligence
BUF · 0.562
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
Prediction range
MIA: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
BUF: median 30, 10th–90th percentile 18–42
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
CIN 31 · MIA 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NE 29 · BUF 26
LAC 16 · BUF 24
KC 24 · MIA 10
MIA 13 · SF 35
DET 31 · BUF 41
BUF 36 · HOU 31
MIA 13 · LV 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT