NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
MIN at SF
Sunday, November 22 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
MIN 19 · SF 23
Win probability
SF 69.0%
MIN 31.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward MIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.010
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.146
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.006
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.190
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.729
QB intelligence
SF · 0.359
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIN · K.Murray
170 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.059 · CPOE 2.0
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
MIN: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
SF: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
MIN 15 · DET 19
SF 20 · ATL 29
IND 10 · MIN 16
WAS 17 · SF 23
SF 32 · SEA 29
MIN 23 · NO 13
DEN 14 · SF 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
ARI 30 · SF 36
MIN 23 · TB 16
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST