NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
NO at CHI
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NO 20 · CHI 26
Win probability
CHI 72.6%
NO 27.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward NO.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · 0.145
Pressure matchup
NO · -0.019
Explosive-play matchup
CHI · 0.005
Third-down matchup
NO · -0.125
Red-zone matchup
NO · -0.127
QB intelligence
CHI · 0.134
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
NO: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
CHI: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
LV 35 · NO 27
MIN 9 · CHI 3
NO 24 · BAL 17
CHI 59 · CAR 37
NO 30 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT