NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at LAC
Sunday, November 22 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 21 · LAC 22
Win probability
LAC 53.6%
NYJ 46.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LAC; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LAC · 0.022
Pressure matchup
NYJ · -0.039
Explosive-play matchup
NYJ · -0.005
Third-down matchup
NYJ · -0.068
Red-zone matchup
NYJ · -0.169
QB intelligence
NYJ · -0.422
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
235 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.260 · CPOE -4.2
NYJ · G.Smith
265 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.146 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
NYJ: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
LAC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
LAC 9 · LA 24
LV 38 · NYJ 33
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
LAC 6 · KC 22
NYJ 19 · NE 26
DEN 23 · LAC 17
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
LAC 23 · SEA 30
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
LAC 16 · BUF 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST