NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at PHI
Sunday, November 22 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
PIT 21 · PHI 22
Win probability
PHI 55.4%
PIT 44.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · -0.010
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.050
Explosive-play matchup
PHI · 0.003
Third-down matchup
PHI · 0.026
Red-zone matchup
PHI · 0.304
QB intelligence
PIT · -0.037
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
PIT: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
PHI: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LA 24 · PHI 20
PIT 24 · CLE 27
PHI 7 · CHI 27
CIN 27 · PIT 30
PHI 24 · TEN 20
PIT 3 · NE 20
WAS 22 · PHI 24
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT