NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at PHI
Sunday, November 22 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
PIT 22 · PHI 20
Win probability
PHI 42.1%
PIT 57.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · -0.118
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.056
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · -0.014
Third-down matchup
PHI · 0.014
Red-zone matchup
PHI · 0.532
QB intelligence
PIT · -0.045
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
PIT · A.Rodgers
312 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.095 · CPOE -1.9
Prediction range
PIT: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
PHI: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
CLE 6 · PIT 27
DAL 38 · PHI 21
PIT 16 · NO 10
PIT 26 · TB 19
CAR 25 · PHI 14
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LA 24 · PHI 20
PIT 24 · CLE 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST