NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at DET
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TB 21 · DET 26
Win probability
DET 71.0%
TB 29.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DET; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · 0.018
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.083
Explosive-play matchup
TB · -0.012
Third-down matchup
DET · 0.078
Red-zone matchup
DET · 0.408
QB intelligence
DET · 0.602
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
264 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.266 · CPOE 1.1
TB · B.Mayfield
124 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.248 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
TB: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
DET: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
MIN 15 · DET 19
ATL 0 · TB 16
GB 17 · DET 20
TB 43 · CAR 13
PIT 26 · TB 19
DET 45 · ARI 21
TB 24 · DAL 16
DET 26 · CAR 32
GB 17 · TB 14
MIN 23 · TB 16
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST