NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
TEN at DAL
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TEN 20 · DAL 27
Win probability
DAL 76.4%
TEN 23.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward TEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DAL · 0.153
Pressure matchup
DAL · 0.000
Explosive-play matchup
TEN · -0.008
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.176
Red-zone matchup
DAL · 0.313
QB intelligence
DAL · 0.396
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
TEN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
DAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TB 24 · DAL 16
TEN 18 · BAL 24
DAL 34 · HOU 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
TEN 7 · NYG 12
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 20 · DAL 37
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT