NFL Week 11 · Matchup Intelligence
TEN at DAL
Sunday, November 22 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TEN 21 · DAL 28
Win probability
DAL 74.9%
TEN 25.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward TEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DAL · 0.098
Pressure matchup
DAL · 0.007
Explosive-play matchup
TEN · -0.001
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.126
Red-zone matchup
DAL · 0.188
QB intelligence
DAL · 0.268
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
316 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.165 · CPOE 0.2
TEN · C.Ward
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.074 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
TEN: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
DAL: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
Recent form
ARI 33 · DAL 30
TEN 36 · CIN 43
DAL 38 · PHI 21
CLE 27 · TEN 24
DAL 13 · GB 23
TEN 26 · IND 20
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
TEN 18 · BAL 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST