NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
ATL at MIN
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ATL 19 · MIN 23
Win probability
MIN 64.9%
ATL 35.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward ATL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.112
Pressure matchup
ATL · -0.081
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.000
Third-down matchup
ATL · -0.191
Red-zone matchup
ATL · -0.643
QB intelligence
MIN · 0.025
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
ATL: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
MIN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
MIN 23 · TB 16
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
MIN 9 · CHI 3
GB 22 · MIN 39
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT