NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
ATL at MIN
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ATL 17 · MIN 23
Win probability
MIN 71.2%
ATL 28.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward ATL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.114
Pressure matchup
ATL · -0.128
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.014
Third-down matchup
ATL · -0.093
Red-zone matchup
ATL · -0.270
QB intelligence
MIN · 0.173
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
180 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.017 · CPOE -4.3
MIN · K.Murray
170 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.059 · CPOE 2.0
Prediction range
ATL: median 17, 10th–90th percentile 5–30
MIN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
MIN 15 · DET 19
ATL 0 · TB 16
SF 20 · ATL 29
IND 10 · MIN 16
CHI 31 · ATL 23
BAL 30 · ATL 23
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
MIN 23 · TB 16
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST