NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at HOU
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
BAL 22 · HOU 25
Win probability
HOU 60.6%
BAL 39.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward HOU; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · 0.080
Pressure matchup
HOU · 0.059
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · -0.002
Third-down matchup
HOU · 0.001
Red-zone matchup
HOU · 0.044
QB intelligence
BAL · -0.001
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · T.Huntley
122 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 0.9
HOU · C.Stroud
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.119 · CPOE 2.3
Prediction range
BAL: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
HOU: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
BAL 10 · BUF 36
CIN 35 · BAL 13
NYG 27 · HOU 21
BAL 10 · CLE 13
HOU 34 · JAX 31
BAL 30 · ATL 23
HOU 26 · TEN 3
DAL 34 · HOU 30
TEN 18 · BAL 24
BAL 34 · DAL 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST