NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at HOU
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
BAL 24 · HOU 23
Win probability
HOU 46.7%
BAL 53.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward HOU; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · -0.007
Pressure matchup
BAL · -0.004
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · 0.002
Third-down matchup
BAL · -0.018
Red-zone matchup
BAL · -0.050
QB intelligence
BAL · -0.222
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
Prediction range
BAL: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
HOU: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TEN 18 · BAL 24
DAL 34 · HOU 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
NO 24 · BAL 17
BUF 36 · HOU 31
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT