NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
CAR at TB
Monday, November 30 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
CAR 21 · TB 25
Win probability
TB 59.0%
CAR 41.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TB; negative values lean toward CAR.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
TB · 0.103
Pressure matchup
TB · 0.006
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · -0.010
Third-down matchup
CAR · -0.106
Red-zone matchup
CAR · -0.460
QB intelligence
CAR · -0.343
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
294 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.059 · CPOE -0.2
TB · B.Mayfield
124 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.248 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
CAR: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
TB: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
ATL 0 · TB 16
CAR 19 · GB 27
TB 43 · CAR 13
CAR 25 · PHI 14
PIT 26 · TB 19
TB 24 · DAL 16
DET 26 · CAR 32
GB 17 · TB 14
MIN 23 · TB 16
CAR 18 · CLE 21
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST