NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at PIT
Friday, November 27 at 3:00 PM EST
Projected score
DEN 21 · PIT 22
Win probability
PIT 51.6%
DEN 48.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PIT; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · -0.063
Pressure matchup
PIT · 0.016
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · 0.001
Third-down matchup
DEN · -0.040
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.671
QB intelligence
PIT · 0.038
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
DEN: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
PIT: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
IND 22 · PIT 34
DEN 14 · SF 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
LA 26 · DEN 30
CIN 27 · PIT 30
JAX 13 · DEN 20
PIT 3 · NE 20
DEN 10 · KC 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT