NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at PIT
Friday, November 27 at 3:00 PM EST
Projected score
DEN 20 · PIT 22
Win probability
PIT 52.8%
DEN 47.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PIT; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · -0.040
Pressure matchup
PIT · 0.005
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · 0.002
Third-down matchup
PIT · 0.025
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.652
QB intelligence
DEN · -0.066
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.011 · CPOE -2.6
PIT · A.Rodgers
312 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.095 · CPOE -1.9
Prediction range
DEN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
PIT: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
CLE 6 · PIT 27
DEN 30 · ARI 16
PIT 16 · NO 10
PIT 26 · TB 19
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
IND 22 · PIT 34
DEN 14 · SF 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST