NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at BUF
Thursday, November 26 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
KC 22 · BUF 26
Win probability
BUF 65.5%
KC 34.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BUF; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · 0.088
Pressure matchup
KC · -0.006
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · 0.011
Third-down matchup
BUF · 0.073
Red-zone matchup
BUF · 0.425
QB intelligence
BUF · 0.160
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
222 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.268 · CPOE 4.0
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
KC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
BUF: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
BAL 10 · BUF 36
KC 3 · SEA 20
LAC 6 · KC 22
BUF 33 · LV 30
BUF 37 · LA 34
KC 30 · LV 27
NE 29 · BUF 26
LAC 16 · BUF 24
KC 24 · MIA 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST