NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at CLE
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LV 23 · CLE 22
Win probability
CLE 49.1%
LV 50.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CLE; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LV · -0.021
Pressure matchup
LV · -0.018
Explosive-play matchup
LV · -0.000
Third-down matchup
LV · -0.085
Red-zone matchup
LV · -0.267
QB intelligence
LV · -0.192
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
Prediction range
LV: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
CLE: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
KC 30 · LV 27
PIT 24 · CLE 27
LV 35 · NO 27
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CLE 23 · TB 19
LV 26 · LAC 14
MIA 13 · LV 27
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT