NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
NE at LAC
Sunday, November 29 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
NE 23 · LAC 19
Win probability
LAC 28.3%
NE 71.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LAC; negative values lean toward NE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · -0.145
Pressure matchup
NE · -0.048
Explosive-play matchup
NE · -0.018
Third-down matchup
NE · -0.073
Red-zone matchup
LAC · 0.207
QB intelligence
NE · -0.569
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
235 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.260 · CPOE -4.2
NE · D.Maye
251 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.209 · CPOE 7.3
Prediction range
NE: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
LAC: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
LAC 9 · LA 24
NE 24 · CHI 30
LAC 6 · KC 22
NYJ 19 · NE 26
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LV 17 · NE 45
LAC 23 · SEA 30
NE 29 · BUF 26
LAC 16 · BUF 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST