NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
NO at CIN
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NO 21 · CIN 28
Win probability
CIN 77.7%
NO 22.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CIN; negative values lean toward NO.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · 0.130
Pressure matchup
NO · -0.070
Explosive-play matchup
CIN · 0.004
Third-down matchup
CIN · 0.099
Red-zone matchup
CIN · 0.038
QB intelligence
CIN · 0.339
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
281 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.242 · CPOE 9.0
NO · T.Shough
289 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.018 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
NO: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
CIN: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–41
Recent form
TEN 36 · CIN 43
CIN 35 · BAL 13
PIT 16 · NO 10
NO 34 · NYG 27
CIN 31 · MIA 24
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
LV 35 · NO 27
CIN 27 · PIT 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST