NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
NYG at IND
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYG 23 · IND 24
Win probability
IND 54.8%
NYG 45.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward NYG.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · 0.003
Pressure matchup
NYG · -0.011
Explosive-play matchup
NYG · -0.017
Third-down matchup
NYG · -0.033
Red-zone matchup
NYG · -0.130
QB intelligence
NYG · -0.189
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
NYG · J.Winston
174 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.116 · CPOE -7.5
Prediction range
NYG: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
IND: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
IND 7 · JAX 42
NYG 27 · HOU 21
IND 10 · MIN 16
NO 34 · NYG 27
TEN 26 · IND 20
IND 22 · PIT 34
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
IND 30 · WAS 13
HOU 17 · IND 19
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST