NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
NYG at IND
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYG 22 · IND 26
Win probability
IND 65.7%
NYG 34.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward NYG.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · 0.084
Pressure matchup
IND · 0.040
Explosive-play matchup
IND · 0.007
Third-down matchup
NYG · -0.094
Red-zone matchup
IND · 0.296
QB intelligence
NYG · -0.131
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
Prediction range
NYG: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
IND: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
IND 30 · WAS 13
TEN 7 · NYG 12
HOU 17 · IND 19
NYG 6 · LA 28
IND 30 · KC 33
BAL 41 · IND 23
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT