NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at MIA
Sunday, November 29 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 23 · MIA 22
Win probability
MIA 49.8%
NYJ 50.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NYJ · -0.040
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.048
Explosive-play matchup
NYJ · -0.009
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.110
Red-zone matchup
MIA · 0.145
QB intelligence
NYJ · -0.228
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
NYJ · G.Smith
265 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.146 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
NYJ: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
MIA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
LV 38 · NYJ 33
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
NYJ 19 · NE 26
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
CIN 31 · MIA 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
KC 24 · MIA 10
NYJ 24 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST