NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at DAL
Thursday, November 26 at 4:30 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 23 · DAL 25
Win probability
DAL 59.1%
PHI 40.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PHI · -0.011
Pressure matchup
PHI · -0.019
Explosive-play matchup
PHI · -0.006
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.149
Red-zone matchup
DAL · 0.399
QB intelligence
DAL · 0.325
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
PHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
DAL: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
PHI 17 · JAX 19
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
BAL 34 · DAL 31
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT