NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
SEA at SF
Sunday, November 29 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
SEA 22 · SF 24
Win probability
SF 61.6%
SEA 38.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward SEA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · -0.033
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.105
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.004
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.171
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.269
QB intelligence
SF · 0.280
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
SEA · S.Darnold
230 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
SEA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
SF: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
CHI 34 · SEA 17
KC 3 · SEA 20
SF 20 · ATL 29
WAS 17 · SF 23
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
LAC 23 · SEA 30
DEN 14 · SF 24
ARI 30 · SF 36
SEA 31 · WAS 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST