NFL Week 12 · Matchup Intelligence
WAS at ARI
Sunday, November 29 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
WAS 25 · ARI 25
Win probability
ARI 49.9%
WAS 50.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward WAS.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
WAS · -0.061
Pressure matchup
ARI · 0.001
Explosive-play matchup
WAS · -0.017
Third-down matchup
ARI · 0.043
Red-zone matchup
WAS · -0.203
QB intelligence
WAS · -0.159
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
WAS · J.Daniels
159 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.043 · CPOE 5.6
Prediction range
WAS: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
ARI: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DEN 30 · ARI 16
WAS 17 · SF 23
ARI 18 · LA 16
DET 45 · ARI 21
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ARI 24 · NYG 36
IND 30 · WAS 13
ARI 30 · SF 36
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST