NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence

BUF at NE

Sunday, December 6 at 4:25 PM EST

Projected score

BUF 24 · NE 25

Win probability

NE 51.8%

BUF 48.2%

Tie 0.0%

Injury impact

No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.

Weather Prediction

No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.

Team strength snapshot

BUF · Elo 1673

Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067

Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%

NE · Elo 1544

Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096

Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%

Matchup Advantage Matrix

Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward BUF.

Opponent-adjusted EPA

NE · 0.003

Pressure matchup

BUF · -0.027

Explosive-play matchup

NE · 0.004

Third-down matchup

BUF · -0.127

Red-zone matchup

BUF · -0.803

QB intelligence

BUF · -0.116

Injury availability

Even · 0.000

Quarterback comparison

BUF · J.Allen

151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0

NE · D.Maye

163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7

Prediction range

BUF: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36

NE: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38

Recent form

BUF 37 · LA 34

LV 17 · NE 45

NE 29 · BUF 26

NE 6 · JAX 35

LAC 16 · BUF 24

PIT 3 · NE 20

DET 31 · BUF 41

BUF 36 · HOU 31

NE 10 · SEA 13

Model context

BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.

Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT