NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at NE
Sunday, December 6 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
BUF 25 · NE 24
Win probability
NE 48.1%
BUF 51.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.063
Pressure matchup
NE · 0.006
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · -0.002
Third-down matchup
BUF · -0.083
Red-zone matchup
BUF · -0.613
QB intelligence
NE · 0.000
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
222 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.268 · CPOE 4.0
NE · D.Maye
251 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.209 · CPOE 7.3
Prediction range
BUF: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
NE: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
BAL 10 · BUF 36
NE 24 · CHI 30
BUF 33 · LV 30
NYJ 19 · NE 26
BUF 37 · LA 34
LV 17 · NE 45
NE 29 · BUF 26
LAC 16 · BUF 24
NE 6 · JAX 35
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST