NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
CAR at MIN
Sunday, December 6 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
CAR 18 · MIN 24
Win probability
MIN 70.5%
CAR 29.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward CAR.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.141
Pressure matchup
CAR · -0.132
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.006
Third-down matchup
CAR · -0.196
Red-zone matchup
CAR · -0.548
QB intelligence
CAR · -0.007
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
294 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.059 · CPOE -0.2
MIN · K.Murray
170 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.059 · CPOE 2.0
Prediction range
CAR: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–31
MIN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
MIN 15 · DET 19
CAR 19 · GB 27
TB 43 · CAR 13
IND 10 · MIN 16
CAR 25 · PHI 14
MIN 23 · NO 13
DET 26 · CAR 32
MIA 10 · MIN 15
MIN 23 · TB 16
CAR 18 · CLE 21
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST