NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at SEA
Monday, December 7 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
DAL 22 · SEA 28
Win probability
SEA 70.7%
DAL 29.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SEA; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · 0.164
Pressure matchup
DAL · -0.108
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · 0.030
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.230
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.161
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.177
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
DAL: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
SEA: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
TB 24 · DAL 16
LAC 23 · SEA 30
DAL 34 · HOU 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
SEA 31 · WAS 33
SEA 31 · ARI 7
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT