NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at ATL
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DET 27 · ATL 26
Win probability
ATL 43.3%
DET 56.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · -0.063
Pressure matchup
ATL · 0.050
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · 0.014
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.037
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.174
QB intelligence
DET · -0.358
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
Prediction range
DET: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
ATL: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
DET 45 · ARI 21
ATL 45 · NO 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
NYJ 24 · DET 31
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
DET 31 · BUF 41
NO 30 · DET 31
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT