NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at ATL
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DET 25 · ATL 23
Win probability
ATL 35.4%
DET 64.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · -0.094
Pressure matchup
ATL · 0.073
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · 0.014
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.075
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.226
QB intelligence
DET · -0.439
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
180 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.017 · CPOE -4.3
DET · J.Goff
264 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.266 · CPOE 1.1
Prediction range
DET: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
ATL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
ATL 0 · TB 16
MIN 15 · DET 19
GB 17 · DET 20
SF 20 · ATL 29
CHI 31 · ATL 23
BAL 30 · ATL 23
DET 45 · ARI 21
ATL 45 · NO 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
NYJ 24 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST