NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
GB at NO
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
GB 24 · NO 21
Win probability
NO 34.5%
GB 65.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward GB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
GB · -0.098
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.030
Explosive-play matchup
GB · -0.042
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.071
Red-zone matchup
NO · 0.047
QB intelligence
GB · -0.181
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
GB · J.Love
327 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.141 · CPOE -1.1
NO · T.Shough
289 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.018 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
GB: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
NO: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
Recent form
CAR 19 · GB 27
GB 17 · DET 20
PIT 16 · NO 10
DAL 13 · GB 23
NO 34 · NYG 27
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
GB 17 · TB 14
LV 35 · NO 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST