NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
GB at NO
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
GB 24 · NO 22
Win probability
NO 36.9%
GB 63.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward GB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
GB · -0.101
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.042
Explosive-play matchup
GB · -0.030
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.104
Red-zone matchup
GB · -0.095
QB intelligence
GB · -0.193
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
GB: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
NO: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
CHI 7 · GB 31
ATL 45 · NO 24
GB 17 · TB 14
LV 35 · NO 27
ATL 35 · GB 14
GB 20 · NYJ 17
NO 24 · BAL 17
NO 30 · DET 31
GB 22 · MIN 39
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT