NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at PIT
Sunday, December 6 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 22 · PIT 22
Win probability
PIT 47.9%
HOU 52.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PIT; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.043
Pressure matchup
PIT · 0.001
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · -0.012
Third-down matchup
HOU · -0.040
Red-zone matchup
HOU · -0.307
QB intelligence
HOU · -0.195
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
HOU: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
PIT: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
HOU 26 · TEN 3
DAL 34 · HOU 30
PIT 24 · CLE 27
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CIN 20 · HOU 6
PIT 3 · NE 20
ATL 13 · PIT 20
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT