NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at CHI
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 22 · CHI 21
Win probability
CHI 42.6%
JAX 57.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.098
Pressure matchup
CHI · 0.004
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.010
Third-down matchup
JAX · -0.070
Red-zone matchup
CHI · 0.041
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.223
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
CHI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
PHI 17 · JAX 19
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
JAX 22 · CIN 17
PHI 7 · CHI 27
NE 6 · JAX 35
JAX 13 · DEN 20
MIN 9 · CHI 3
CLE 10 · JAX 34
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT