NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at LA
Thursday, December 3 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
KC 21 · LA 23
Win probability
LA 55.4%
KC 44.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LA; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · -0.010
Pressure matchup
LA · 0.043
Explosive-play matchup
KC · -0.001
Third-down matchup
KC · -0.023
Red-zone matchup
LA · 0.103
QB intelligence
KC · -0.036
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
LA · M.Stafford
317 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.094 · CPOE 0.6
Prediction range
KC: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
LA: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
LAC 9 · LA 24
KC 3 · SEA 20
LA 35 · LV 21
LAC 6 · KC 22
ARI 18 · LA 16
BUF 37 · LA 34
KC 30 · LV 27
LA 24 · PHI 20
LA 26 · DEN 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST