NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at TB
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 20 · TB 23
Win probability
TB 57.1%
LAC 42.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TB; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
TB · 0.008
Pressure matchup
TB · 0.145
Explosive-play matchup
LAC · -0.006
Third-down matchup
TB · 0.063
Red-zone matchup
TB · 0.051
QB intelligence
TB · 0.106
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
LAC: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
TB: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
DEN 23 · LAC 17
TB 24 · DAL 16
LAC 23 · SEA 30
GB 17 · TB 14
MIN 23 · TB 16
LAC 16 · BUF 24
CLE 23 · TB 19
LV 26 · LAC 14
ARI 26 · LAC 14
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT