NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at DEN
Sunday, December 6 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 17 · DEN 24
Win probability
DEN 76.7%
MIA 23.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · 0.219
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.047
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · -0.012
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.078
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.283
QB intelligence
DEN · 0.172
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
Prediction range
MIA: median 17, 10th–90th percentile 5–30
DEN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
CIN 31 · MIA 24
DEN 14 · SF 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
LA 26 · DEN 30
KC 24 · MIA 10
JAX 13 · DEN 20
MIA 13 · SF 35
DEN 10 · KC 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT