NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at ARI
Sunday, December 6 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 23 · ARI 24
Win probability
ARI 52.6%
PHI 47.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
ARI · 0.005
Pressure matchup
PHI · -0.061
Explosive-play matchup
ARI · 0.004
Third-down matchup
ARI · 0.023
Red-zone matchup
PHI · -0.138
QB intelligence
PHI · -0.005
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
PHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
ARI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DAL 38 · PHI 21
DEN 30 · ARI 16
ARI 18 · LA 16
CAR 25 · PHI 14
DET 45 · ARI 21
PHI 17 · JAX 19
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LA 24 · PHI 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST