NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at ARI
Sunday, December 6 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 24 · ARI 22
Win probability
ARI 40.5%
PHI 59.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PHI · -0.098
Pressure matchup
PHI · -0.048
Explosive-play matchup
PHI · -0.019
Third-down matchup
ARI · 0.081
Red-zone matchup
ARI · 0.183
QB intelligence
ARI · 0.043
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
PHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
ARI: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
PHI 17 · JAX 19
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
ARI 30 · SF 36
PHI 24 · TEN 20
SEA 31 · ARI 7
ARI 26 · LAC 14
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT