NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at NYG
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
SF 26 · NYG 21
Win probability
NYG 18.9%
SF 81.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.214
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.054
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.032
Third-down matchup
SF · -0.063
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.519
QB intelligence
SF · -0.432
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
SF: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
NYG: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
SF 32 · SEA 29
NYG 27 · WAS 27
DEN 14 · SF 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
ARI 30 · SF 36
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NYG 6 · LA 28
MIA 13 · SF 35
DAL 20 · NYG 28
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT