NFL Week 13 · Matchup Intelligence
WAS at TEN
Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
WAS 23 · TEN 22
Win probability
TEN 47.3%
WAS 52.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TEN; negative values lean toward WAS.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
WAS · -0.118
Pressure matchup
TEN · 0.039
Explosive-play matchup
WAS · -0.003
Third-down matchup
WAS · -0.046
Red-zone matchup
WAS · -0.233
QB intelligence
WAS · -0.130
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
WAS: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
TEN: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
NYG 27 · WAS 27
TEN 18 · BAL 24
IND 30 · WAS 13
TEN 7 · NYG 12
SEA 31 · WAS 33
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 20 · DAL 37
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT