NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
ATL at CLE
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ATL 23 · CLE 21
Win probability
CLE 40.9%
ATL 59.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CLE; negative values lean toward ATL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
ATL · -0.051
Pressure matchup
ATL · -0.091
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · -0.013
Third-down matchup
ATL · -0.118
Red-zone matchup
ATL · -0.321
QB intelligence
ATL · -0.012
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
ATL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
CLE: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
ATL 45 · NO 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
CAR 18 · CLE 21
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
CLE 23 · TB 19
CLE 10 · JAX 34
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT