NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence

BUF at GB

Sunday, December 13 at 8:20 PM EST

Projected score

BUF 25 · GB 24

Win probability

GB 40.8%

BUF 59.2%

Tie 0.0%

Injury impact

No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.

Weather Prediction

No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.

Team strength snapshot

BUF · Elo 1673

Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067

Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%

GB · Elo 1558

Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032

Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%

Matchup Advantage Matrix

Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward BUF.

Opponent-adjusted EPA

BUF · -0.118

Pressure matchup

GB · 0.020

Explosive-play matchup

GB · 0.006

Third-down matchup

BUF · -0.062

Red-zone matchup

BUF · -0.312

QB intelligence

BUF · -0.109

Injury availability

Even · 0.000

Quarterback comparison

BUF · J.Allen

222 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.268 · CPOE 4.0

GB · J.Love

327 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.141 · CPOE -1.1

Prediction range

BUF: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37

GB: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36

Recent form

BAL 10 · BUF 36

CAR 19 · GB 27

GB 17 · DET 20

DAL 13 · GB 23

BUF 33 · LV 30

BUF 37 · LA 34

CHI 7 · GB 31

NE 29 · BUF 26

GB 17 · TB 14

LAC 16 · BUF 24

Model context

BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST