NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at GB
Sunday, December 13 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
BUF 26 · GB 24
Win probability
GB 39.1%
BUF 60.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.112
Pressure matchup
BUF · -0.036
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.002
Third-down matchup
BUF · -0.129
Red-zone matchup
BUF · -0.239
QB intelligence
BUF · -0.148
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
Prediction range
BUF: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
GB: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
CHI 7 · GB 31
NE 29 · BUF 26
GB 17 · TB 14
LAC 16 · BUF 24
ATL 35 · GB 14
GB 20 · NYJ 17
DET 31 · BUF 41
GB 22 · MIN 39
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT