NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at MIA
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CHI 25 · MIA 20
Win probability
MIA 25.2%
CHI 74.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · -0.238
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.027
Explosive-play matchup
CHI · -0.010
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.167
Red-zone matchup
MIA · 0.189
QB intelligence
CHI · -0.285
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · C.Williams
171 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 7.6
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
Prediction range
CHI: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
MIA: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
Recent form
CHI 34 · SEA 17
NE 24 · MIA 19
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
NE 24 · CHI 30
CHI 31 · ATL 23
CIN 31 · MIA 24
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST