NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at MIA
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CHI 24 · MIA 20
Win probability
MIA 31.4%
CHI 68.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · -0.204
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.030
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · 0.007
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.106
Red-zone matchup
MIA · 0.198
QB intelligence
CHI · -0.355
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
Prediction range
CHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
MIA: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
KC 24 · MIA 10
MIA 13 · SF 35
MIN 9 · CHI 3
MIA 13 · LV 27
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT