NFL Week 14 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at NYJ
Sunday, December 13 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DEN 23 · NYJ 21
Win probability
NYJ 38.2%
DEN 61.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYJ; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · -0.160
Pressure matchup
DEN · -0.007
Explosive-play matchup
NYJ · 0.007
Third-down matchup
NYJ · 0.025
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.266
QB intelligence
NYJ · 0.160
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.011 · CPOE -2.6
NYJ · G.Smith
265 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.146 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
DEN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
NYJ: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
LV 38 · NYJ 33
DEN 30 · ARI 16
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
NYJ 19 · NE 26
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
DEN 14 · SF 24
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST